The obvious issue is how vulnerable are shares? Could the bull market that got under way from the inflation and interest rate lows of 2022 (that has seen global shares rise 42% and Australian shares rise 23%) be over?
The Australian housing market has started the year on a solid note with national home prices up 1.6% over the first three months according to CoreLogic. We had thought the drag of high mortgage rates would get the upper hand again but the supply shortfall is continuing to dominate.
It’s four years since the COVID lockdowns started. The pandemic ended when it morphed into the less deadly Omicron variant in late 2021, but just as a sound can reverberate around a room the effects of the pandemic continue to reverberate in economies.
Bitcoin attracts extreme views - evangelists on the one hand and agnostics and atheists on the other in contrast to other things where the debate is between bulls and bears. This note looks at what it means for investors.
Investing can be scary and confusing at times. But the basic principles of successful investing are timeless and quotes from experts help illuminate these.
Seven key charts worth keeping an eye on are: global business conditions PMIs; inflation; unemployment and underemployment; inflation expectations; earnings revisions; the gap between earnings yields and bond yields; and the US dollar.
Last year shares climbed a “wall of worry” as inflation fell leading to prospects for lower interest rates ahead. But can it continue? After participating in a webinar on the investment outlook this note takes a look at the main questions investors have in a simple Q&A format.
The Australian tax system has five key problems: it’s heavily reliant on income tax; it’s complicated by numerous tax concessions; it’s highly progressive; it has ongoing problems with “bracket creep”; & suffers from several anachronisms.
The surge in inflation coming out of the pandemic and its subsequent fall has been the dominant driver of investment markets over the last two years – first depressing shares and bonds in 2022 and then enabling them to rebound.
Despite lots of angst at the start of the year, 2023 turned out far better than feared. Dr Shane Oliver reflects on key themes from the past year and suggests what investors should look out for in 2024
The five key themes for 2023 were: better than feared growth; disinflation; peak interest rates (probably in Australia too); lots of geopolitical threats but not as bad as feared; and AI hit the big time. This boosted shares and helped bonds with solid superannuation fund returns.
The decision by the RBA to leave rates on hold at its December meeting and whether we have reached the top or not. At its December meeting the RBA left rates on hold but retained a tightening bias with still relatively hawkish commentary.
Five reasons to expect the Australian dollar to rise into next year: it’s undervalued; short term interest rate differentials look likely to shift in favour of Australia; sentiment towards the $A is negative; commodities still look to have entered a new super cycle; and Australia has a solid current account surplus.
Successful investing is not always easy and can be stressful. Even in good times. For this reason, it’s useful for investors to keep a key set of things in mind.
Australian home prices rose again in October, with the supply shortfall on the back of record immigration dominating. While this is likely to continue, there is a high risk that the impact of high interest rates will start to get the upper hand next year particularly if the RBA hikes again and unemployment rises by more than expected.
Five megatrends suggest higher medium term inflation pressures & lower economic growth than pre-pandemic.
The war in Israel is terrible from a humanitarian perspective. From an economic and investment perspective the concern is that it will lead to a surge in oil prices that will add to inflation, keep interest rates higher for longer and add to the risk of recession.
This edition of Oliver's Insights looks at the impact of rising bond yields on shares, the risks flowing from the renewed conflict in Israel and comparisons to the run up to the 1987 share crash.
Starting point valuations – like yields and price to earnings ratios – are key drivers of medium-term investment returns.
Dr Shane Oliver discusses the key drivers of poor housing affordability in Australia and particularly the role played by high immigration levels.
While the risk in the short term is still on the upside for rates or a delay to the start of rate cuts, our base case is that rates will be on hold until early next year ahead of rate cuts starting in the March quarter.
It seems that the worry list for investors has become more threatening and confusing. However, to succeed, it makes sense to err on the side of cautious optimism: otherwise, there is no point in investing; growth assets like shares have trended up over the long term; and trying to get the timing right of the 2 or 3 years out of 10 when they fall can be very hard.
This article looks at the current concerns about the Chinese economic outlook and how Australia can't rely on the China/commodity boom indefinitely.
This article takes a look at why boosting productivity growth matters and why it might be hard (beyond a return to normal after pandemic related distortions).
Recession versus “goldilocks” – five reasons why we could still avoid recession
This article takes a look at the currently confusing economic landscape with some indicators being very strong and others very weak.
Seven key charts worth keeping an eye on remain: global business conditions PMIs; inflation and our Inflation Indicators; unemployment and underemployment; inflation expectations; earnings revisions; the gap between earnings yields and bond yields; and the US dollar.
Getting our personal finances right can be a challenge at times. And the surge in interest rates has arguably made it even harder for many. This article looks at some common-sense personal finance tips that may be of use.
The past financial year saw a solid rebound in investment returns, after the negative returns of the 2021-22 financial year. This note reviews the past 12 months in investment markets and looks at the outlook.
Recession has been a recurring theme over the last year or so but has intensified lately. But what's driving it? How serious is the risk of recession? And what would it mean for Australians and investors?
Dr Shane Oliver outlines the large worry list for shares; some positives that still exist; and the implications for investors
This note looks at the decline in Australia’s home ownership rate since the mid-1960s and what has driven it.
Key to watch will be bond yields, whether the economy avoids recession and where “work from home” settles.
Dr Shane Oliver and Deputy Chief Economist Diana Mousina explain what effects the Federal Budget could have on the Australian economy and investment markets.
Australian home prices rose again in April & along with other indicators suggest the home price downturn is over, but we must now watch rates and unemployment
This article takes a look at the recommendations of the independent Reivew of the RBA and it’s not clear the proposed reforms will lead to a better outcome for the Australian economy.
Five charts focusing on critical aspects of investing that are insightful in times of market stress
Dr Shane Oliver looks at the outlook for Australian property prices, particuarly given the bounce in prices over the last month or so.
US banks, inflation, interest rates and recession risk - what it means for investors?
Seven key charts for investors to keep an eye on are: global business conditions PMIs; inflation; unemployment & underemployment; longer term inflatione expectations; gap between earnings & bond yields; & the US dollar
The RBA hiked again by 0.25% taking the cash rate to 3.35%. It continues to expect to increase interest rates further.
Dr Shane Oliver explains seven reasons why Australian shares are likely to outperform global shares over the medium term
2022 was dominated by high inflation, rising interest rates, war in Ukraine & recession fears. This hit bonds & shares hard, driving losses for balanced growth super funds.
The article reviews the key developments of 2022 of relevance for investors and their impact on investment markets, and takes a look at the outlook for 2023.
The home price slump continued in November, with still more to go
The surge in inflation should start to reverse next year
At last, it seems some of the bad news for shares appears to be abating. It’s certainly been a rough year.
Economic and financial commentary has been particularly gloomy of late, with talk of a “dire”, “grim”, “bleak”, “perilous” and “confronting” outlook.
The Government has implemented its election policies and expects lower budget deficits this year and next thanks to another revenue windfall and various savings.
Successful investing can be really hard in times like the present. Falls in share markets and other assets are stressful as no one likesto see their wealth decline and the natural inclination is to retreat to safety.
The latest client note by Howard Marks, the co-founder and co-chair of Oaktree Capital, an alternative investment manager focussing on distressed debt, on The Illusion of Knowledge about the futility of forecasting to drive investment decisions, inspired me to revisit what I had already written on this subject.
The RBA has increased its cash rate again but slowed the pace to +0.25% which took the cash rate to 2.6%....
Investors could be forgiven for looking back on the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021 with fond memories – because after the initial shock in February-March 2020 it was a period of strong returns and relative calm in investment markets.
The last twenty years have seen a sharp slowdown in productivity growth in Australia
Shares remain vulnerable in the short term. They had a nice rebound from ..
“This time is different” have been described as the four most dangerous words in investing by Sir John Templeton. But there is good reason to believe this Australian home price downturn cycle will be different...
Booms, busts and investor psychology – why investors need to be aware of the psychology of investing
Investment markets are driven by more than just fundamentals. Investor psychology plays a huge role and helps explain why asset prices go through periodic booms and busts...
Cycles are part of life. Whether it be the cycle of day and night, seasons, tides, weather cycles from the almost weekly cycles of cold fronts that regularly blow across southeast Australia...
As widely expected, the RBA has increased the cash rate again by 0.5% taking it to 1.85%.
The start of this year has been painful for investors with sharp losses in shares and bonds, dragging most superannuation funds into negative returns for the last financial year...
I grew up in the 1970s and it was fun – Abba, Elvis, Wings, JPY, flares, cool cars, etc. But economically it was a mess.
The past financial year was poor for investors as inflation, rising interest rates and recession fears hit investment markets.
Australian household debt has risen dramatically since the 1980s and is high compared to other countries.
Share markets have fallen sharply in recent weeks continuing the plunge that started early this year due to worries about inflation, monetary tightening, recession & geopolitical issues including the invasion of Ukraine.
The RBA has hiked the cash rate again - by 0.5% taking it to 0.85% and continues to signal more rate hikes ahead.
Australian home prices fell 0.1% in May, their first decline since the pandemic.
The ALP won the election and is set to Govern most likely in its in own right or as a minority government.
Last year saw very strong investment returns and was relatively calm in investment markets.
Another five great charts on investing that are very useful in times of uncertainty like the present
Successful investing can be really difficult in times of uncertainty like now making it important to stay.
For the first time since November 2010, the RBA has raised its official cash rate - from 0.1% taking it to 0.35%.
Accessing green energy isn’t only for the wealthy. Companies like Evergen are making it more affordable for everyone. We talk to Ben Hutt, CEO & Managing Director for Evergen and Bopha Ly, Managing Director, Energy for AMP Capital’s Infrastructure Equity business to get their perspective.
As inflation returns to the global economy, can holding infrastructure assets protect a portfolio from rising prices? We explore.
The very strong employment market is putting pressure on the Reserve Bank to lift interest rates. Our Senior Economist dives deeper.
Australian election campaigns tend to result in a period of uncertainty which have seen weak gains on average for shares followed by a bounce once it’s out of the way.
National average property prices are likely to peak around mid-year and then enter a cyclical downswing. After 22% growth in national average home prices last year, average home price growth this year is expected to be around 1% and we expect a 5-10% decline in average prices in 2023.
Five great charts on investing that are particularly useful in times of uncertainty like the present
Investing is often seen as complicated. This has been made worse over the years by: the increasing complexity in terms of investment products and choices; regulations and rules around investing; the role of the information revolution and social media in amplifying the noise around investment markets...
The Budget delivered no surprises when it came to super. There were two measures which had a direct impact and each of them had been released previously, one only in the past few days. Graeme Colley explains further.
In this short video, AMP Senior Economist Diana Mousina gives a round-up of the key outcomes from last night’s 2022-23 Federal Budget proposals and explains what effect they could have on the Australian economy.
The 2022-23 Budget supports investment in premium real estate assets with high-quality leasing covenants that can deliver optimal income returns through a period of volatility driven by higher interest rates.
The 2022-23 Budget provides a “magic election pudding” of more spending but lower deficits. The additional spending relates mainly to this calendar year and given the strong economy is more motivated by politics than economics.
After much anticipation, the US Federal Reserve has raised its Federal Funds target interest rate from a range of 0-0.25%, where it’s been for the last two years since the pandemic started, to the range of 0.25-0.5%.
World oil prices have spiked to their highest levels since 2008, rising more than 30% since the war in Ukraine started.
Humans do horrible things to each other, and war is the worst example of that. What was first announced by Russia earlier last week as a “peacekeeping” force ...
While the extent of the local and global economic recovery post COVID-19 is unclear, there are still opportunities for investors able to capitalise on key trends that we believe will drive the performance of commercial real estate in 2022.
What happens to interest rates is always important for investors, but particularly so at turning points in the economy. Our Senior Economist discusses why.
Despite the rough and uncertain start to the year there is reason to be optimistic about the share market in 2022.
The last few days have seen a sharp escalation in the situation between Russia and Ukraine, with Russia recognising the independence of two regions in the Donbas area
This note covers the main questions investors commonly have regarding the investment outlook in a simple Q&A format.
While shares have had a nice rebound from their January lows helped in part by some good earnings news – reversing around half of their 10% or so fall, ...
Over the last six months several central banks have raised interest rates. This started in emerging markets but developed country central banks have also hiked rates...
Share markets have fallen in recent weeks on the back of worries about inflation, monetary tightening, the Omicron disruption and the rising risk of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.
For last few decades inflation has not been much of an issue. It was all about economic activity. Books were even written about “the death of inflation”.
Despite a wall of worry with coronavirus and inflation, 2021 was a great year for diversified investors,
Just as 2020 was dominated by coronavirus so too was 2021. But 2021 turned out to be a far better year for investors. The big negatives of 2021 were of course dominated by coronavirus...
Load more