The longer-term legacy of coronavirus - nine implications of importance to investors

The magnitude of the coronavirus shock means it will have implications beyond those associated with its short-term economic disruption.

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The benefits of investing in real assets for retirement

A retirement portfolio’s allocation of growth and defensive assets traditionally depends on an investors’ risk profile.

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Infrastructure and the road to recovery

Post-COVID, what does the road to recovery for infrastructure look like? And what role does infrastructure play in a portfolio?

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How real estate will play a leading role in getting to net zero

Australia’s net zero debate could leave the impression that climate change is all about heavy manufacturing, regional towns and coal-fired power stations.

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Compound interest is like magic - and it’s an investor’s best friend

If there is one “technical thing” investors should know about investing, it’s the power of compound interest.

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Central banks - including the RBA and Fed – gradually removing monetary stimulus is more good news than bad

The march of central banks towards tighter monetary policy has stepped up over the last few months.

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Rising bond yields and the end of the super cycle bull market in bonds

It’s normal for bond yields to rise in economic recoveries but it’s looking increasingly likely that the nearly 40-year

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Science and medicine appear to be getting the upper hand of coronavirus - implications for investors

There are increasing signs that science and medicine are getting the upper hand against coronavirus: new global cases are in decline;

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Why is Australian housing so expensive and what can be done to improve housing affordability?

For as long as I can recall housing affordability has been an issue in Australia but since the 1990s it’s gone from being a periodic cyclical concern to a chronic problem.

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Oliver's Insights - 7 reasons to look beyond the gloom

Australian GDP slowed in the June quarter & will be hit hard by the lockdowns - but here’s 7 reasons to look beyond the gloom

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China’s growth slowdown and regulatory crackdown - what does it mean for China’s growth outlook?

After surging 65% from its coronavirus low in March 2020 to its high in February this year, the Chinese share market saw an 18% decline into July.

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Six reasons why shares are at or near record levels. But is it sustainable?

Despite lots of worries – around the resurgence of coronavirus driven by the Delta variant, peak growth, peak monetary and fiscal stimulus and high inflation

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Great investment quotes for topsy turvy times

The current environment seems to be one of extreme uncertainty. We have seen a strong economic recovery from last year’s global and Australian recessions

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Coronavirus continues to cause havoc globally and in Australia - but here are five reasons for optimism

It seems the bad news on coronavirus doesn’t let up. The lockdown in NSW looks like going longer.

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Seven key charts for investors to watch - where are they now?

In January for investors to watch as being critical to the investment outlook this year. Put simply, where are they now?

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Oliver's Insights - put the latest worry list in context

Five ways to turn down the noise and stay focused as an investor

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Oliver's Insights - 2020-21 saw investment returns rebound – expect more modest but still good returns this financial year

The past financial year saw a spectacular rebound in returns for investors as the focus shifted from the recession to recovery against a backdrop of policy stimulus and vaccines. This note reviews the last financial year and takes a look at the outlook.

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Oliver's Insights - The never-ending coronavirus pandemic – why snap lockdowns in Australia make sense until herd immunity is reached.

News that I and many others were effectively in lockdown from Friday was depressing. It got even more depressing when the whole of Sydney and surrounds was put into a two-week lockdown on Saturday.

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Oliver's Insights - Are central banks heading towards the easing exits

The drumbeat of central banks heading towards the exits from ultra-easy monetary policy is getting louder

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Oliver's Insights - Inflation – why it matters for investment markets

The shift from high inflation to low inflation has been a key tailwind for investment returns over the last 40 years – in particular it has allowed capital growth in excess of growth in earnings and rents

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Olivers Insights - Optimistic March quarter

The Australian economic recovery remained strong in the March quarter with GDP up 1.8% – seven reasons for optimism

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Oliver's Insights - Inflation Q&A – should we be worried about higher inflation?

Inflation will likely rise further in the months ahead due to base effects, bottlenecks & reopening but it’s likely to fall back again from later this year as these drivers fade.

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Big-spending Federal Budget set to spur on the recovery

The 2021 Federal Budget harks back to the immediate post GFC budgets in some ways, with the Treasurer resisting any temptation to start early on the task of budget repair and doubling down on stimulus.

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Olivers Insights - The 2021-22 Australian Budget – spending the growth windfall to further grow the economy towards full employment

The Government now expects the Federal budget deficit to peak at $161bn this financial year (down from $214bn in October’s Budget) and fall to $107bn in 2021-22.

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Oliver's Insights - The return of geopolitical risk? – what to watch over the remainder of 2021

Geopolitical risks are higher than prior to the GFC reflecting three big themes: a populist backlash against economic rationalist policies; the falling relative power of the US; and the polarising impact of social media.

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Olivers Insights - Three reasons why the long-term bull market in Australian house prices may be getting close to the end

The Australian housing market is booming. Prices are rising sharply, auction clearance rates are very strong, sales are surging, and housing finance is around record highs.

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Oliver's Insights - The importance of starting point valuations for investment returns – and where are we now?

It makes sense that the cheaper you buy an asset the higher its prospective return will be. However, this is frequently forgotten with investors often tempted to project recent returns into the future regardless of valuations.

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A new age of Infrastructure, Energy, and Investment is dawning

Articles and updates. A new age of infrastructure energy and investment is dawning Preparing for the post-COVID recovery in real estate, the bonds market and more...

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Oliver's Insights - Market outlook Q&A – global recovery, vaccines, inflation, the risk of a share crash, Aust house prices and other issues

Global recovery is on track. Vaccines are working. JobKeeper’s end won’t derail Australia’s recovery. Inflation could become an issue in the medium term. Shares are at risk of a correction but are supported by economic and earnings recovery.

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Oliver's Insights - RBA on hold and likely to remain easy for a long while yet

RBA on hold and likely to remain easy for a long while yet as full employment gets more of a look in. While the economy is recovering faster than expected. The RBA will likely start to slow its quantitative easing measures through this year though.

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Oliver's Insights - Shares have had a very strong rebound since March last year so where are we in the investment cycle?

The history of cyclical bull markets in shares suggests that the rebound since last March still has a way to go.

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Oliver's Insights - Bitcoin – it’s not a currency, it’s not a capital asset… so what is it?

Digital currencies and blockchain technology may have a lot to offer - but that does not mean Bitcoin will be it.

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Oliver's Insights -The bond crash of 2021? Seven things for investors to consider

The 40-year downtrend in inflation and bond yields is likely over. But the fundamental backdrop of improving growth, rising profits and still low rates supports the case for solid 6-12 month returns from shares

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Olivers Insights - Australian house prices on the upswing again – seven things to bear in mind about the Australian property market

Expect average Australian home prices to rise 5-10% this year and next as ultra-low interest rates and economic recovery feed through. However, the outlook is divergent...

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Six key things to know about super in 2021

The super rules change regularly, and this year is no exception.

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Oliver's Insights - Nine common mistakes investors make

Many of the mistakes investors make are based on common sense rules of thumb that turn out to be wrong.

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Capital Edition Jan/Feb 2021

Will Airports ever be the same, Real estate rock stars, USA Game changing year and the face of front line responders

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Olivers Insights - Seven key charts for investors to watch regarding the global economy and investment markets this year.

Shares are at risk of a short-term correction or consolidation, but investment markets should provide solid returns this year on the back of continuing economic recovery and low interest rates.

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Oliver's Insights - Seven key charts for investors to watch regarding the global economy and investment markets this year

Our high-level investment view is that while shares are vulnerable to a short term correction having run up hard since early November, overall investment returns will be solid this year on the back of economic recovery (driven by stimulus and the deployment of vaccines allowing a more sustained reopening) at the same time that interest rates remain low.

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Oliver's Insights - US political protests, inflation and rising bond yields

US protests are only an issue for investment markets if they significantly impact economic activity

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Olivers Insights - 2021 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook

2020 turned out far better for investors than was feared. 2021 is expected to provide solid returns & see a further rotation from pandemic winners to cyclical investments.

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Oliver's Insights - from pandemic to recovery

Review of 2020, not what it was supposed to be - Outlook for 2021 - Recovery

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Modern Monetary Theory – can it help with economic problems or is it just another Magic Money Tree?

For some years now Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) has been gaining prominence as a solution to the perceived failure of traditional economic policies to achieve full employment & meet inflation targets, despite at or near zero interest rates.

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Olivers Insight's - Joe Biden on track to become US president. Implications for investors and Australia

The US election has been close and final counting as well as legal challenges could still upset the result, but the now highly likely outcome is a Biden Presidency.

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Olivers Insights - RBA cuts rates to just 0.1% and ramps up quantitative easing – but will it work?

The RBA has cut the cash rate to a record low 0.1% & announced a broad-based quantitative easing program.

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Expect slower medium-term returns

Despite a 35% or so plunge in share markets earlier this year; on the back of the pandemic and rough patches in 2018, 2015 and 2011, well diversified Australian investors have seen pretty good returns over the last 10 years. The median balanced growth superannuation fund returned 5.8% pa over the five years to August and 7.3% pa over 10 years and that’s after fees and taxes. While that’s dull compared to the double digit returns of the higher inflation world of the 1980s and 1990s, it’s pretty good once low inflation of 2% pa or less is allowed for.

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Federal Budget 2020-2021

The 2020-21 Australian Budget – spend, spend, spend as the focus remains on recovery and jobs, jobs, jobs

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Olivers Insight's Sep 22

Australia’s “eye popping” budget deficit and public debt blow out – can it be paid off? Does it matter?

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More action out of the RBA this month to support the economy | AMP Capital

In its September board meeting, we saw another move out of the RBA to support the Australian economy through COVID-19, and there could be more to come.

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RBA holds – but more stimulus likely as Victorian lockdown to knock at least $12bn from national GDP

Victoria’s tightening lockdown could knock at least $12bn off the Victorian and national economy and delay the return to positive Australian GDP growth to the December quarter.

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Oliver's Insights - The fiscal cliff is more likely to be a fiscal slope – and why concerns about Australia’s budget deficit are overblown

The thought of various government support measures expiring in the months ahead, causing some sort of fiscal cliff over which economies and share markets will plunge, has caused much consternation. But as with the original fiscal cliff of December 31, 2012 in the US, it’s likely to be tapered into a fiscal slope.

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Oliver's Insights - 2019-20 saw poor returns - but it could have been much worse

The past financial year was poor for investors as coronavirus knocked economies into what is likely to be their biggest hit since the 1930s. Shares were hit hard, but the blow was softened by a strong rebound in the June quarter. This note reviews the last financial year and takes a look at the outlook.

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Oliver's Insights - How worried should investors be about a “second wave” of coronavirus cases?

A serious second wave of coronavirus cases in major developed countries is the biggest risk facing equity markets, and one investors will need to watch closely.

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Oliver's Insights - Shares climb a “wall of worry” - but is it sustainable?

The strong rally in shares since their March lows reflects a combination of economic reopening, signs of recovery, policy stimulus and once pessimistic investors closing underweight or short positions.

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Oliver's Insights

Australian house prices starting to fall – collapse likely averted but expect more weakness ahead

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Oliver's Insights - 10 medium to longer-term implications from the Coronavirus shock

There has been much debate about the short-term economic and investment impact of coronavirus – on economic activity, unemployment, interest rates, house prices, shares, etc.

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The Lucky Country - three reasons why Australia may come through this period of global misery better than most countries

Back in January when the bushfires were raging, I feared Australia’s luck had ran out. But right now, I thank god I live in The Lucky Country!

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Capital Edition Issue 08

THE INSIDE WORKINGS OF AN INVESTING RULEBOOK.

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Why super and growth assets like shares have to be seen as long-term investments

This is an update of a note I wrote last November, but after the recent plunge in shares and the associated 10% or so loss in balanced growth superannuation funds through the March quarter, it’s particularly relevant now.

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Light at the end of the coronavirus tunnel – what does it mean for investors?

After a strong rally, in the short-term shares are vulnerable to bleak economic and earnings news.

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Magic money tree – QE & money printing and their part in the coronavirus economic rescue

Central bank support to ensure the flow of money and credit through economies is an essential part of the global and Australian coronavirus economic rescue

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Capital Edition Issue 07

MARKETS IN THE AGE OF (MIS) INFORMATION

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What signposts can we watch to be confident shares have bottomed?

While shares have rallied 15-20% from their March low and may have started a bottoming process

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The coronavirus pandemic and the economy – a Q&A from an investment perspective

Significant government support is essential to enable parts of the economy to successfully hibernate

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Is coronavirus driving a recession, depression or an economic hit like no other? What does it mean for the bear market in shares?

Global share markets have fallen into a bear market, but whether this turns out to be long or short depends on how long the hit to the economy from coronavirus lasts.

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The threat to Australian house prices from Coronavirus

The Australian housing market is at risk from the coronavirus recession Australia has now entered. A relatively short recession that sees unemployment rise to around 7.5% would likely only set prices back around 5% or so after which prices would bounce back.

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Five charts on investing to keep in mind in rough times like these

Successful investing can be really difficult in times like the present with immense uncertainty around the impact of coronavirus on the outlook.

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The increasing economic threat from coronavirus - what to watch for and what should investors do?

The rout in financial markets has continued, on the back of coronavirus, made worse by a flow on to oil markets.

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Capital edition issue 6

How the next generation is investing?

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The plunge in shares – seven things investors need to keep in mind

The plunge in share markets over the last week has generated much coverage and consternation.

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The increasing spread of Coronavirus – updated economic and investment market implications

While reported new coronavirus cases in China have slowed, the pickup in cases outside China has led to a renewed sharp fall in share markets and bond yields.

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Oliver's Insights - Three reasons why low inflation is good for shares and property

Shares are vulnerable to a short-term correction - Key things to watch out for are recession and much higher inflation.

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From bushfires to coronavirus - five ways to turn down the noise around investing

From bushfires to coronavirus - five ways to turn down the noise around investing

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Olivers Insights -The China Coronavirus outbreak – economic and investment market implications

The China coronavirus outbreak has led to concerns of a global pandemic triggering an economic downturn. Our base case is that the outbreak will be contained allowing share markets and bond yields to rebound. However, uncertainty is high given that the coronavirus is more contagious than SARS albeit with lower mortality. Key to watch for is a peak in new cases and contained transmission in developed countries.

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Five charts to watch regarding the global economy and markets this year

Shares are at risk of a short-term correction or consolidation after a strong run over the last year and with sentiment now very bullish. However, this year should still see good returns for investors as global growth edges up and interest rates remain low. > Five key global charts to watch are: global business conditions PMIs; global inflation; the US yield curve; the US dollar; and global trade growth. > So far so good, with PMIs improving a bit, inflation remaining low, the yield curve steepening, the $US showing signs of topping and the US/China trade truce auguring well for some pick up in world trade growth.

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Bushfires and the Australian economy

The Australian bushfire season that began in September has been horrific with more than 7 million hectares of bush destroyed, more than 25 deaths, significant loss of livestock, estimates of more than a billion wildlife animals killed and more than 1800 homes destroyed. More than 200 fires are still burning. Following the intensification of the bushfires over the Christmas/New Year period attention has now turned to the impact on the economy. This note looks at the key impacts.

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Learn about refinancing your home loan and how it can save you money

Even if you secured a competitive package when you first took out your home loan, it’s worth reviewing each year1 to ensure the interest rates, fees and features continue to meet your needs. By refinancing you may be able to pay off your home loan sooner.

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Capital Edition - Strength in unity

In this month’s issue we discuss how: James Maydew believes that having culture and strategy on the same blueprint is an absolute imperative climate change is impacting the real estate sector, and how leaders and businesses are standing up to the task of tackling it Julie-Anne Mizzi uses her innate passion for investing in infrastructure for those who need it, and the familiar airport retail experience is set for a makeover.

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Oliver's insights - Review of 2019, outlook for 2020 - the beat goes on

2019 saw growth slow, recession fears increase and the US trade wars ramp up, but solid investment returns as monetary policy eased, bond yields fell and demand for unlisted assets remained strong. 2020 is likely to see global growth pick up with monetary policy remaining easy. Expect the RBA to cut the cash rate to 0.25% and to undertake quantitative easing. Against this backdrop, share markets are likely to see reasonable but more constrained & volatile returns, and bond yields are likely to back up resulting in good but more modest returns from a diversified mix of assets. The main things to keep an eye on are: the trade wars; the US election; global growth; Chinese growth; and fiscal versus monetary stimulus in Australia.

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